The fire hazards indicates the likelihood of an ignition occurring. The spatial distribution of the fire hazard will be based on the analysis and modeling of the following variables: covered (eg species, structure, type of management), terrain (eg slope and exposure), social (eg population density, and economic (eg distribution of population by sector of activity).
The determination of the spatial distribution of the fire risk, ie the potential damage that can cause the fire, will be calculated on the basis of the reference values, insurance of persons and property used by the insurers.
The temporal and spatial variation of the fire hazard will be obtained by the association between the history of the meteorological hazard index (FWI) and the structural variables (covered, terrain and socioeconomic). The establishment of fire hazard estimation equations based on FWI evolution will allow the region to obtain, in a climate change scenario, the frequency and future intensity of forest fires.
Finally, in order to increase the resilience of ecosystems to this natural risk, the introduction of species with lower flammability will be evaluated comparatively, as well as any changes required in the structure and management of the present stands, using different scenarios of global warming for the year of 2050. In order to guarantee the sustainability of the rural populations and the ecosystem, we will also analyze in economic and environmental terms the new organizational models and management of forest areas.