Firms, International Trade, and Aggregate Fluctuat.. (FIRMSFLUCTUATIONS)
Firms, International Trade, and Aggregate Fluctuations
Start date: Sep 1, 2014,
End date: Aug 31, 2016
This project will provide a detailed account of the role of individual firms in generating aggregate fluctuations using data covering the universe of French firms for the period 1990-2007, and highlight the importance of international trade in the analysis of of firm shocks and aggregate volatility. The project will complete six objectives. First, it will lead to the construction of a new firm-level dataset that merges firm domestic and export sales, along with other firm-level characteristics. Second, it will provide new methodology to identify firm-level idiosyncratic shocks by exploiting the export-orientation of firms, and estimate these shocks. Third, it will quantify the contribution of the idiosyncratic shocks to the volatility of aggregate sales growth. Fourth, it will measure the importance of firm-level interconnectedness in propagating idiosyncratic shocks into aggregate volatility. Fifth, it will estimate how a firm’s export and import orientations affect its exposure to shocks, as well as its ability to diversify risk. Sixth, it will quantify the implications of firms’ export and import orientations on aggregate volatility.
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