Start date: Mar 1, 2012,
End date: Feb 28, 2017
"The aim of my research project is to build a mathematical model for the quantitative assessment of the effects of demographic changes on economic activity. It is an ambitious project as it involves the integration of the latest developments in demographic and economic models. It is also highly innovative as it proposes an original treatment of demographic uncertainty. Most existing models consider demographics as a deterministic variable and foresee a set of scenarios. At best, the models incorporate demographics as a risk variable and assume that agents know the stochastic process underlying the demographic dynamics. In the present research project, I wish to build a demographic-economic model in which the future demographics are uncertain. This will have three consequences. First, individual decisions are different and depend on the individuals' attitudes towards uncertainty. Second, the aggregation of individual decisions is more complex, especially because of the fact that the latter are not necessarily temporally consistent. Third, the approach to economic policy is renewed. The government is not necessarily perceived as an omniscient being who corrects market dysfunctions, but rather, it is itself under uncertainty and must compromise with the choices made by agents."
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